Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.016961 0.019230 0.021695 0.024575 0.027846 0.031450 0.035723
2025-05-18 0.013265 0.016348 0.019992 0.024621 0.030353 0.037229 0.046121
2025-05-25 0.011044 0.014402 0.018603 0.024253 0.031673 0.041109 0.054061
2025-06-01 0.009761 0.013332 0.018012 0.024610 0.033703 0.045838 0.063339
2025-06-08 0.008603 0.012227 0.017171 0.024432 0.034865 0.049382 0.071238
2025-06-15 0.007947 0.011707 0.017025 0.025126 0.037215 0.054686 0.082033
2025-06-22 0.006976 0.010611 0.015922 0.024283 0.037191 0.056492 0.087783
2025-06-29 0.006296 0.009866 0.015240 0.023963 0.037862 0.059316 0.095258
2025-07-06 0.005599 0.009018 0.014309 0.023144 0.037643 0.060689 0.100496
2025-07-13 0.005353 0.008854 0.014420 0.023972 0.040100 0.066481 0.113421
2025-07-20 0.005085 0.008623 0.014394 0.024558 0.042188 0.071819 0.126050
2025-07-27 0.004857 0.008436 0.014417 0.025215 0.044433 0.077586 0.139924
2025-08-03 0.004481 0.007969 0.013937 0.024981 0.045142 0.080827 0.149749
2025-08-10 0.004183 0.007611 0.013617 0.024999 0.046304 0.084976 0.161662
2025-08-17 0.003856 0.007173 0.013111 0.024627 0.046699 0.087738 0.171187
2025-08-24 0.003667 0.006968 0.013009 0.024989 0.048494 0.093243 0.186518
2025-08-31 0.003422 0.006637 0.012642 0.024808 0.049214 0.096741 0.198176
2025-09-07 0.003310 0.006550 0.012728 0.025513 0.051737 0.103961 0.218085
2025-09-14 0.003023 0.006094 0.012062 0.024657 0.051023 0.104634 0.224373
2025-09-21 0.002821 0.005793 0.011676 0.024332 0.051366 0.107474 0.235523
2025-09-28 0.002584 0.005399 0.011071 0.023500 0.050566 0.107847 0.241297
2025-10-05 0.002533 0.005388 0.011250 0.024341 0.053425 0.116247 0.265784
2025-10-12 0.002460 0.005326 0.011314 0.024937 0.055795 0.123778 0.289014